Five signals to watch on the road to COP30

As COP30 in Belém approaches, two very different storylines are shaping how we understand the state of global climate action. 

On one hand, the UNFCCC’s Quarterly Update shows a system that has never been more complete — every rulebook, registry, and reporting framework in place (yet still falling short of the pace needed to reach net zero). On the other hand, Brazil’s COP30 President-Designate has issued eight public letters charged with moral language that frames  2025 as the turning point between incrementalism and transformation.

In my mind, these narratives reveal five signals that business and policy leaders should watch closely in the weeks ahead.

1. The era of negotiation is over — legitimacy now comes from delivery

Signal: Both the UNFCCC updates and the COP30 letters show that implementation is the new diplomacy. The Paris Agreement’s architecture is finished and the Secretariat’s Quarterly Updates show a “rulebook” full of busy activity (Nationally Determined Contributions, transparency reforms, Article 6, adaptation metrics). Indeed, the Presidency letters go further: calling COP30 the “first COP of full implementation” and a test of whether the world can “change by choice, not by catastrophe.” The signal is clear that what matters now is delivery: measurable projects that reduce emissions, create jobs, and build resilience. 

What it means for practitioners:

• The measure of success is shifting: governments, investors, and companies will be judged by projects underway, not by promises.
• Expect greater scrutiny of execution quality related to local inclusion, fiscal alignment, and social outcomes.
• In short: delivery = credibility.
  

2. A new compass is emerging — the Global Stocktake as the world’s benchmark

Signal: The 2023 Global Stocktake (GST) - the UNFCCC’s process for checking how we are progressing towards the goals of The Paris Agreement - has evolved into the world’s shared compass for staying within the mission critical 1.5°C target. Its core imperatives (tripling renewables, doubling efficiency, halting deforestation by 2030, and transitioning away from fossil fuels “in a just, orderly, and equitable manner”) are becoming a new compass for how to incorporate climate action into policy and investment  across the next decade.

What it means for practitioners:

• Policy alignment: Expect national climate plans, trade measures, and finance conditions to increasingly be benchmarked against GST goals.
• Corporate alignment: More and more, this will include investors and rating agencies evaluating strategies through the GST lens rather than company-defined ESG metrics.
• In short: GST-consistent = the global (not self-defined) standard.
  

3. Climate finance is finally shifting from “how much” to “how to make it work” 

Signal: The Baku-to-Belém Roadmap — cited in every UNFCCC update and reinforced in several presidency letters — envisions mobilising US $1.3 trillion annually by 2035. But the real signal lies in the shift of focus: how to move climate action to the centre of financial policy and capital systems. Instead of asking ‘how much’, the emphasis is on financial institutions to consider ‘how to actually make it work’, through debt reform, concessional capital, risk sharing, and blended instruments. Brazil’s letters call for financial institutions to become “bigger, better, faster,” while the UNFCCC stresses the importance of access, transparency, and local implementation.

What it means for practitioners:

• Finance ministries and central banks are becoming pivotal climate actors. 
• Private investors must prepare for new disclosure, taxonomy, and incentive frameworks that link access to capital to social and climate performance.
• Businesses that can co-design blended or results-based instruments will define the new frontier of sustainable finance.
  

4. Business is the delivery vehicle and real-world climate projects are the destination 

Signal: The seventh letter from the COP30 Presidency is directed specifically to business, positioning the private sector as a co-architect of the Paris Agreement. It launches a Granary of Solutions to scale real-world climate projects, with transparency and accountability. Meanwhile, the UNFCCC notes that carbon markets, transparency frameworks, and just-transition dialogues are converging around practical implementation.

What it means for practitioners:

• Corporate climate action has been inside the multilateral tent for some time, but expectations are hardening for companies to deliver measurable contributions to national and global goals.
• Industrial policy and climate policy are merging: competitiveness, innovation, and social inclusion are now core climate levers.
• Partnerships over pledges: Businesses that bring verifiable solutions — in renewables, supply-chain decarbonisation, resilience infrastructure, or adaptation tech — will shape the next phase of policy.
  

5. Inclusion and adaptation are now core indicators of success

Signal: At this COP, adaptation - reducing vulnerability to changing climates - has been elevated from the side agenda to “the first half of our survival.” The eighth letter calls COP30 “the COP of adaptation” and directly ties climate resilience to poverty reduction, fiscal stability, and moral legitimacy, describing adaptation as critical to delivering the “best version of humanity – grounded in dignity, justice and solidarity”. As the age of design ends and the decade of delivery begins, it is imperative that we prove that climate policy can improve outcomes for both the planet and people.

What it means for practitioners:

• Adaptation - the changes we make to protect communities from our changing climate - is critical for both business growth and risk management. Infrastructure, supply chains, and workforces that are resilient to climate changes are the next competitive frontier.
• Equity, participation, and ensuring benefits are distributed equitably are becoming conditions for investment, not optional corporate social responsibility targets.
• Policy coherence: expect adaptation, social protection, and just transition measures to move from the theoretical realm into the practical one of national budgets and investment criteria.
  

In summary

For business and policy leaders, this boils down to (at least) five imperatives:

• Align with the GST.
• Show implementation.
• Innovate finance architecture.
• Target real-world action
• Govern with adaptation and inclusion as strategic fundamentals.

Those who operationalise these signals early — translating them into policies, portfolios, and partnerships — will not just future-proof their business operations. They will define what a truly just and sustainable climate economy looks like in the decade after Belém.